Cloudy outlook for climate models

Original URL: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/12/27/anton_wylie_climate_models/

By Anton Wylie

Published Thursday 27th December 2007 08:02 GMT

Climate models appear to be missing an atmospheric ingredient, a new study suggests.

December's issue of the International Journal of Climatology from the Royal Meteorlogical Society contains a study of computer models used in climate forecasting. The study is by joint authors Douglass, Christy, Pearson, and Singer - of whom only the third mentioned is not entitled to the prefix Professor.

Their topic is the discrepancy between troposphere observations from 1979 and 2004, and what computer models have to say about the temperature trends over the same period. While focusing on tropical latitudes between 30 degrees north and south (mostly to 20 degrees N and S), because, they write - "much of the Earth's global mean temperature variability originates in the tropics" - the authors nevertheless crunched through an unprecedented amount of historical and computational data in making their comparison.

For observational data they make use of ten different data sets, including ground and atmospheric readings at different heights.

On the modelling side, they use the 22 computer models which participated in the IPCC-sponsored Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison. Some models were run several times, to produce a total of 67 realisations of temperature trends. The IPCC is the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and published their Fourth Assessment Report (http://ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf) [PDF, 7.8MB] earlier this year. Their model comparison program uses a common set of forcing factors.

Notable in the paper is a generosity when calculating a figure for statistical uncertainty for the data from the models. In aggregating the models, the uncertainty is derived from plugging the number 22 into the maths, rather than 67. The effect of using 67 would be to confine the latitude of error closer to the average trend - with the implication of making it harder to reconcile any discrepancy with the observations. In addition, when they plot and compare the observational and computed data, they also double this error interval.

So to the burning question: on their analysis, does the uncertainty in the observations overlap with the results of the models? If yes, then the models are supported by the observations of the last 30 years, and they could be useful predictors of future temperature and climate trends.

Unfortunately, the answer according to the study is no. Figure 1 in the published paper available here (http://www.uah.edu/News/pdf/climatemodel.pdf)[PDF] pretty much tells the story.

Douglass et al. Temperature time trends (degrees per decade) against pressure (altitutude) for 22 averaged models (shown in red) and 10 observational data sets (blue and green lines). Only at the surface are the mean of the models and the mean of observations seen to agree, within the uncertainties.

While trends coincide at the surface, at all heights in the troposphere, the computer models indicate that higher trending temperatures should have occurred. And more significantly, there is no overlap between the uncertainty ranges of the observations and those of the models.

In other words, the observations and the models seem to be telling quite different stories about the atmosphere, at least as far as the tropics are concerned.

So can the disparities be reconciled?

---

Douglass et al criticise earlier research that used a metric of uncertainty based on maxima and minima from simulations. This would seem a reasonable criticism, since conformity with observations could be obtained simply by running a simulation - any simulation - enough times to generate the outlying data points needed to cover the observational range.

The authors note:

"There is an enormous ongoing effort to find errors in the observations that would reduce the disagreement with the models. [Shouldn't that be the other way round? - naive ed.] Here, the task is daunting since the various datasets are independently constructed and one needs to find something wrong with each one of them".

In regard to the observations, they are more blunt. Reiterating the view that we must assume that the latest dataset versions are the best estimates based upon investigators knowledge and experience using the data, they say: "We agree: the values given are the values we should use".

Already, their conclusion - "that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution" - has raised their popularity with climate change bloggers.

Could something be missing from the climate models?

After the Bali Hai...

Accounts of atmospheric processes bearing on climate must take account not just of the "greenhouse gases", but also of clouds and aerosols - airborne particles ("particulates") from a variety of sources such as volcanos, industrial emissions, forest fires and wind-blown desert dust.

The influence of aerosols is particularly difficult to gauge, with even the IPCC admitting in section 2.4.4 of their Fourth Report that "The progress in both global modelling and measurements of the direct RF [radiative forcing] of aerosol leads to a medium-low level of scientific understanding."

(Radiative forcing is an index of the influence of a particular component, and may be positive or negative. Arriving at a global climate model entails additional steps to determine how they interact - and where they are).

IPCC global mean radiative forcings, grouped by type, showing estimated uncertainties. Timescale (red column) estimates atmospheric persistence, were the anthropogenic cause to cease. The IPCC's assessment of the scientific understanding of each type is shown at right. (Note: aerosols are classified here as Anthropogenic. It is not clear if this includes or excludes aerosols from Natural causes).

To that end, NASA coordinates a program called AERONET, (AErosol Robotic Network (http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/)), an internationally supported system of solar-powered automated sun-seeking spectrometers which measure aerosol density.

It has been known for a long time that aerosols contribute to cloud formation, as solid particles can induce water vapour to condense onto them to form the liquid droplets that make up clouds. As the chart above shows, the IPCC considers that aerosols produce a "negative forcing". In other words, they inhibit the "greenhouse effect", and cool the climate.

But a study published earlier this year in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters journal by researchers from the Weizmann Institute and Goddard Space Center suggests (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2007/twilightzone_particles.html) that the picture is more complicated than hitherto foreseen. Dividing the atmospheric effect of aerosols into their wet and their dry effects, as the IPCC report does, has been an uncritical assumption so far.

It has been customary to give clouds a wide berth of 1 km when measuring aerosols, because of the confusing optical properties of cloud edges. But says lead author Ilan Koren of the Weizmann Institute, "After working with several years of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA Terra and Aqua spacecraft, we consistently saw what appeared to be elevated levels of aerosols near clouds.

However, satellites are not the only sources of data. It was after Weizmann researchers switched their attention to the ground-based AERONET data that they discovered the full extent of what they were seeing.

"We found that the region affected by this cloud field 'twilight zone' extends to tens of kilometers beyond the identified cloud edge. This suggests that 30 to 60 per cent of the atmosphere previously labeled as 'cloud-free' is actually affected by cloud-aerosol processes that reflect solar energy back into space."

Goddard's Lorraine Remer, co-author on the study, adds: "What we think we're seeing is a transitional zone where clouds are beginning to form or are dying away, and where humidity causes dry particles to absorb water and get bigger."

So clouds are not what they would seem - what looks like clear blue sky may be a 'twilight zone', concealing processes of nascent cloud formation that need further scientific clarification.

Computer models may need to be revised to include the new finding. But what of the impact on scenarios of future global climate? Remer notes -

"Current estimates of the effect of aerosols on global temperatures, which is primarily cooling, may be too small because the large contribution from this transition zone has been overlooked."

Perhaps it's time for Reg readers to check they have their coats. But on both empirical and inferential grounds, then, the science of climate looks to be far from over.®

Full story/Permalink

British Media Exploited by Intel Agencies

Once in a while, the public gets a peek inside the world of disinformation

(source)

British journalists -- and British journals -- are being manipulated by the secret intelligence agencies, and I think we ought to try and put a stop to it. --David Leigh[1] Intelligence agencies can manipulate journalists and their newspapers in various ways. Firstly, spies may recruit journalists or even impersonate them. It goes without saying that these long and broadly practiced activities are unhealthy as they put the life of every single journalist in danger, and particularly those who work as foreign correspondents. Secondly, intelligence agencies can plant disinformation in mainstream media under false identity. In the months preceding the 1953 overthrow of Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh, intelligence agencies used this technique abundantly and without any difficulty, according to a copy of the CIA's secret history of the coup, which surfaced in 2000. "The Iran desk of the [US] State Department was able to place a CIA study in Newsweek, using the normal channel of desk officer to journalist. The article was one of several planted press reports that, when reprinted in Tehran, fed the war of nerves against Iran's prime minister, Mohammed Mossadegh," the document said. The third way for the spook to gain access to the media is rather subtle and particularly insidious. It consists of exploiting the vanity of journalists to impress on them to hide or lie about the real identity of their sources. Spies are said to have used this technique -- known as "I/Ops" for Information Operation -- heavily in the British press. Yet, it can rarely be documented. But once in a while, an I/Op gets out of control, giving the public a rare opportunity to take a peek inside the world of disinformation. In November 1995, The Sunday Telegraph published a sensational story about one of our then favorite villains: Libya. The paper accused Col. Muammar Qaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, of running a major money laundering operation in Europe intended to fund weapons of mass destruction: Saif al-Islam is a "thoroughly dishonest, unscrupulous and untrustworthy maverick against whom the international banking community has been warned to be on its guard." The article had been written by then-senior correspondent Con Coughlin. Coughlin's source was described as a "British banking official." When The Sunday Telegraph was served with a libel writ by Qaddafi's son, the paper was unable to back up its allegation. The paper lodged three defenses. First, the lawyers argued that the newspaper had not injured Gaddafi's reputation. Second, they argued that the article about him was true. Finally, claiming the defense of qualified privilege, the lawyers argued that it was in the public interest to publish the articles even if they turned out to be untrue. For those who follow the Lockerbie farce -- the Megrahi second appeal over the Lockerbie judgment -- it is hard not to notice the irony of the last argument. Indeed, it seems that in the U.K., it is good for the public to be told lies while at the same time it is good for the same public not to be shown secret documents believed to be vital to unearthing the truth about the largest crime ever committed on U.K. soil. "Is it in truth a classic muddle? A story of security service incompetence, a story of black propaganda, a story The Sunday Telegraph did not take that much care with because it never thought the matter would come to court?" asked James Price, QC, for Saif al-Islam. During the trial in April 2002, bits of the true story began to emerge. On Oct. 19, 1995, the Conservative foreign secretary Malcom Rifkind had arranged a lunch that Coughlin attended. During that meeting, Coughlin was told by Rifkind that Iran was trying to get hold of hard currency to fund its WMD program in spite of UN sanctions. Rifkind encouraged Coughlin to follow this story. The dispute was settled in less than two days of trial.[2] "There was no truth in the allegation that Gaddafi participated in any currency sting," said Geoffrey Robertson, QC, representing Telegraph Group Ltd. "The Sunday Telegraph has accepted not only that there is no truth in these allegations, but that there is no evidence to suggest that there is any truth in them, and they have agreed to apologize to the claimant [Saif al-Islam] in this court and in the newspaper," Price told journalists. One had to wait for the publication of David Hooper's book "Reputations Under Fire" to learn that the source of the article was not a "British banking official." Actually, they were intelligence officers working for MI6. It is now understood what really occurred. On Oct. 25 and 31, 1995, Coughlin was briefed by a MI6 man (source A) who appeared to be his regular contact with the agency. Source A gave Coughlin an overview of the plan. Through an Austrian Company, Iran was selling oil on the black market to fund its secret military nuclear program. Moreover, on Nov. 21, 1995, source A introduced Coughlin to a second MI6 person (source B) who described the involvement of Saif al-Islam in the counterfeiting scam.[3] Source B requested strict confidentiality. The next day, the two MI6 officers described the money laundering deal in great detail during a four-hour meeting. Eight billion dollars would be transferred out of banks in Egypt and replaced by Libyans dinars, minus a substantial commission. The Libyans would hide their involvement through a Swiss branch of an international finance company. Meanwhile, an Iranian middleman would provide a large amount of fake currency. On Nov. 23, Coughlin met once more the two intelligence officers who showed him copies of the banking records. There is just one problem with the story. The intelligence officers made it up. It was pure fabrication and Coughlin bought it while hiding the true identity of his source. "I believe he [Coughlin] made a serious mistake in falsely attributing his story to a British banking official. His readers ought to know where his material is coming from. When The Sunday Telegraph got into trouble with the libel case, it seems, after all, to have suddenly found it possible to become a lot more specific about its sources," wrote David Leigh. "Our first task as practitioners is to document what goes on in this very furtive field. Our second task ought to be to hold an open debate on what the proper relations between the intelligence agencies and the media ought to be. And our final task must then be to find ways of actually behaving more sensibly." Has Coughlin learned anything from the affair? It seems that the answer to this question is definitely no. He went on writing about the false link between Saddam and al-Qaida and the false allegations concerning the Iraqi WMDs. He wrote that the Iraqis could access their WMDs within 45 minutes. Coughlin has written numerous articles about the alleged Iranian military program such as "Meanwhile, Iran Gets On With Its Bomb," "Israeli Crisis Is a Smoke Screen for Iran's Nuclear Ambitions," "Iran Accused of Hiding Secret Nuclear Weapons Site," "Iran Has Missiles to Carry Nuclear Warheads," "UN Officials Find Evidence of Secret Uranium Enrichment Plant," "Iran Plant Has Restarted Its Nuclear Bomb-Making Equipment," and "Iran Could Go Nuclear Within Three Years." Not a single one of these articles quotes a named source.

1. "Britain's Security Services and Journalists: The Secret Story," British Journalism Review, Vol. 11, No. 2, 2000, pages 21-26. David Leigh is assistant editor of The Guardian. He is former editor of the Guardian's comment page and former assistant editor at The Observer. He is a distinguished investigative reporter and formerly a producer for Granada Television's World in Action program. In 2007, he was awarded the Paul Foot prize, with his colleague Rob Evans, for the BAE bribery exposures. 2. Prince Bandar bin Sultan bin Abdulaziz, the Saudi Arabian ambassador in Washington, D.C., and a nephew of King Fahd, is understood to have brokered the settlement at the request of the Sunday Telegraph. 3. The reader should keep in mind that in late November 1995, MI6 was approached by Libyan dissidents concerning their plan to assassinate Colonel Gaddafi in February 1996. MI6 met with one member of the group, code name Tunworth, in late November 1995. -- Ludwig De Braeckeleer has a Ph.D. in nuclear sciences. He teaches physics and international humanitarian law. He blogs on "The GaiaPost."

Full story/Permalink

Intelligence Redefined: Are You A Gifted Person?

(source)
For a long time the meaning of giftedness has been restricted to the rigid confines of achievement and accomplishment. Academic toppers are, and should be entitled to their share of glory, but in the process of lauding top scorers and scholarship winners we may be crowding out those who actually have advanced and complex patterns of development but just don’t fit the system’s definition of ‘top students’.

Characteristics of gifted individuals: If 75 per cent of the following 37 characteristics fit you, you are probably a gifted adult.
Are you a good problem solver?
Can you concentrate for long periods of time?
Are you a perfectionist?
Do you persevere with your interests?
Are you an avid reader?
Do you have a vivid imagination?
Do you enjoy doing jigsaw puzzles?
Often connect seemingly unrelated ideas?
Do you enjoy paradoxes?
Do you set high standards for yourself?
Do you have a good long-term memory?
Are you deeply compassionate?
Do you have persistent curiosity?
Do you have a good sense of humor?

Read

Are you a keen observer?
Do you love mathematics?
Do you need periods of contemplation?
Do you search for meaning in your life?
Are you aware of things that others are not?
Are you fascinated by words?
Are you highly sensitive?
Do you have strong moral convictions?
Do you often feel out-of-sync with others?
Are you perceptive or insightful?
Do you often question rules or authority?
Do you have organized collections?
Do you thrive on challenge?
Do you have extraordinary abilities and deficits?
Do you learn new things rapidly?
Feel overwhelmed by many interests/abilities?
Do you have a great deal of energy?
Often take a stand against injustice?
Do you feel driven by your creativity?
Love ideas and ardent discussion?
Did you have developmentally advanced childhood?
Have unusual ideas or perceptions?
Are you a complex person?
*Adapted from the Institute for the Study of Advanced Development.

One way to identify gifted individuals is their style of thinking. They usually employ divergent thinking. Their style is original and they tend to come up with crazy ideas, which other people find strange. But sometimes it is these crazy ideas that go on to become the most recognized ones of our time.

Gifted individuals face many challenges, with one of biggest being the inability to be correctly identified by the individuals who should be helping them realize their true potential.

As with any other student, it would be a shame if parents, teachers and peers did not recognize the strengths of gifted students and allow them to reach their true potential. But what must educators and parents do in order to make sure this does not happen?

However until more help is readily available, what are the gifted to do?

Sadly, not enough is known about giftedness. More time and energy need to be spent identifying traits among the gifted, especially since it is these students who go on to contribute much to improving the state of our world.

Acknowledge the possibilities, identify your capabilities and allow yourself to be different. You never know, you may be the next Einstein.

Full story/Permalink

A Genocide. Thousands of Taliban that had surrendered were killed by US forces.

Full story/Permalink

Hyperinflation Madness: The ECB Dumps Over $500 Billion into Banking System

(LPAC)--The European Central Bank (ECB) announced today the latest unprecedented move, probably destined to be unprecedented until tomorrow. As part of the deal struck by five central banks last week, unlimited amounts of short term money are being made available to any bank, at the cheapest possible rate of 4.21%. This is bare 21 points above the European official interest rate, and way below the interbanking rate which has recently been around 4.9%. The Financial Times reported that the ECB expected a demand for the two-week money of Euro 260.7 billions, but by mid-afternoon they were reporting that Euro 348.6 billion - $502 billion - had been grabbed up.

This is the largest single money injection by the ECB in history. Last week's announcement of auctions for about $100 billion had been judged "too little" by the financial markets.

Parallel to the ECB's idiocy, today, the Fed will start the first of a series of "universal" money auctions, i.e. where all banks can participate and borrow anonymously, for an amount of $20 billion. This is also the first auction in which the Fed will really implement the decision (announced last August) of accepting subprime and CDO assets as collateral, despite the fact that no one knows what they are worth, if anything at all. All this money is theoretically to be returned to the lender, but in practice such loans will be refinanced again and again, so that the money stays in the system and feeds hyperinflation.

While liquidity injections keep the corpse of the financial system on a life-support scheme, the general insolvency of the system cannot be cured. An extraordinary summit of the heads of state and government of Britain, Germany and France has been called by Gordon Brown during the first two weeks of January, in London, to address the financial crisis.

Full story/Permalink

Descendants of Sitting Bull, Crazy Horse break away from US2

(source)

The Lakota Indians, who gave the world legendary warriors Sitting Bull and Crazy Horse, have withdrawn from treaties with the United States, leaders said Wednesday.

"We are no longer citizens of the United States of America and all those who live in the five-state area that encompasses our country are free to join us," long-time Indian rights activist Russell Means told a handful of reporters and a delegation from the Bolivian embassy, gathered in a church in a run-down neighborhood of Washington for a news conference.

A delegation of Lakota leaders delivered a message to the State Department on Monday, announcing they were unilaterally withdrawing from treaties they signed with the federal government of the United States, some of them more than 150 years old.

They also visited the Bolivian, Chilean, South African and Venezuelan embassies, and will continue on their diplomatic mission and take it overseas in the coming weeks and months, they told the news conference.

Lakota country includes parts of the states of Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.

The new country would issue its own passports and driving licences, and living there would be tax-free -- provided residents renounce their US citizenship, Means said.

The treaties signed with the United States are merely "worthless words on worthless paper," the Lakota freedom activists say on their website.

The treaties have been "repeatedly violated in order to steal our culture, our land and our ability to maintain our way of life," the reborn freedom movement says.

Withdrawing from the treaties was entirely legal, Means said.

"This is according to the laws of the United States, specifically article six of the constitution," which states that treaties are the supreme law of the land, he said.

"It is also within the laws on treaties passed at the Vienna Convention and put into effect by the US and the rest of the international community in 1980. We are legally within our rights to be free and independent," said Means.

The Lakota relaunched their journey to freedom in 1974, when they drafted a declaration of continuing independence -- an overt play on the title of the United States' Declaration of Independence from England.

Thirty-three years have elapsed since then because "it takes critical mass to combat colonialism and we wanted to make sure that all our ducks were in a row," Means said.

One duck moved into place in September, when the United Nations adopted a non-binding declaration on the rights of indigenous peoples -- despite opposition from the United States, which said it clashed with its own laws.

"We have 33 treaties with the United States that they have not lived by. They continue to take our land, our water, our children," Phyllis Young, who helped organize the first international conference on indigenous rights in Geneva in 1977, told the news conference.

The US "annexation" of native American land has resulted in once proud tribes such as the Lakota becoming mere "facsimiles of white people," said Means.

Oppression at the hands of the US government has taken its toll on the Lakota, whose men have one of the shortest life expectancies -- less than 44 years -- in the world.

Lakota teen suicides are 150 percent above the norm for the United States; infant mortality is five times higher than the US average; and unemployment is rife, according to the Lakota freedom movement's website.

"Our people want to live, not just survive or crawl and be mascots," said Young.

"We are not trying to embarrass the United States. We are here to continue the struggle for our children and grandchildren," she said, predicting that the battle would not be won in her lifetime.

Full story/Permalink

The Man With The Extended Mind

Full story/Permalink

Micro turbines to generate electricity for households

(source) It is now possible to generate electricity using small rivers and even shallow brooks thanks to the brand new micro turbines developed and produced by Turkish Electromechanics Industry (TEMSAN).

Micro turbines will render it possible to generate electricity even from a small brook, though it will meet only the needs of an ordinary house. TEMSAN, committed to manufacturing turbine and generator equipment for hydroelectric power plants and designing and producing micro turbines and transformer substations under the supervision of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, has recently completed its four-year long studies and managed to design 12 different turbine prototypes. The prices of these turbines vary from YTL 3,000 to YTL 40,000 depending on their capacity and strength. A micro turbine, able to produce 3 kilowatt/hour (kWh) of power, meets all the electricity needs of four houses -- from illumination to temperature control. Turbines with a capacity of 100 to 200 kWh, on the other hand, are enough to supply electricity for moderate-sized villages and even small-sized towns. It is not necessary to get a license or to establish a company to install micro turbines on rivers or brooks. Anyone is able to get one of these turbines and install it under the guidance of local ministry representative. They will also be able to sell the electricity to the local electricity network. Hamit Akdere, a fish farm operator in Sivas, was the first to acquire and run one of these micro turbines. He notes that this system is "extremely profitable" as long as there is water to spin the turbine. "The electricity generated by these turbines will contribute significantly to meeting the country's energy hunger," Turkey's Energy Minister Hilmi Güler has said on several occasions since the project began in 2003. "In the past, people used to say 'water flows in vain and Turks just watch'. This will no longer be the case," Güler stressed frequently. If micro turbines start being widely used across the country, they will supply at least 10 percent of Turkey's total annual electricity usage -- in other words they will produce around 3,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity. TEMSAN General Manager Osman Kadakal pointed out that conventional hydroelectric plants could only be constructed on large rivers with high flow potential, whereas micro turbines can get electricity from even small streams. Kadakal also notes that it is possible to install numerous micro turbines on rivers as long as the depth and strength of the river's water flow allow it. Although this technology is new for Turkey, it is already in use in many countries. This method is especially useful in countries with an abundance of small rivers. Electricity-hungry workshops, like foundry works, are usually established around such small rivers in these countries. The turbines are designed to also cover some major risks. For example, they utilize high-capacity batteries that immediately step in if the turbines are broken or temporarily out of service. Kadakal said the micro turbines are 100 percent Turkish products and no foreign technology was used in manufacturing them. A separate research and development body is employed to develop micro turbines for this. A single micro turbine of the smallest capacity can produce enough electricity to cover all electricity needs of two ordinary houses and costs around YTL 3,000, excluding batteries and other supplements. Assuming that the cost of electricity for homes is roughly Ykr 10 per kilowatt-hour -- which comes out to around YTL 880 in one year, taking into consideration the annual average consumption amounts in Turkey, these machines will pay for themselves in just two years. They also work with no operational costs. The Energy Productivity Law, passed by Parliament in May 2007, allows the generation of electricity from small rivers provided that a person or institution establishes a plant with a maximum capacity of 200-kilowatt (KW). The law also exempts them from having a production license or owning a company for generation so long they use the electricity only for their own needs.

13.12.2007

İSMAİL ALTUNSOY ANKARA

Full story/Permalink

Councils lose 1,000 blank cheques

Story from BBC NEWS:
Two councils are facing calls for an investigation after a box of 1,000 blank cheques were lost by staff.

The package of Aberdeen City Council cheques went missing in September after it was delivered to Aberdeenshire Council headquarters for printing.

The cheques were due to be used to pay back council tax refunds.

Council chiefs said the they were cancelled as soon as it was discovered that they had disappeared, and stressed there was no danger of fraud.

However, critics said the error raised concerns about security and called for an inquiry into what had happened.

Aberdeen City councillor James Hunter branded the incident "diabolical" and said there should be an investigation.

The box of cheques was delivered to Aberdeenshire Council's Woodhill House, but went astray before it reached the relevant department.

I think it's diabolical really that this has happened and someone will have to take responsibility for it James Hunter Aberdeen City councillor

The unsigned cheques bore the Aberdeen City Council logo and serial numbers and were due to be printed with payment details for council tax refunds.

A city council spokesman said: "We were informed by Aberdeenshire Council that a package of cheques was missing.

"We immediately arranged to have them voided. The cheques were not in a form that could be used, so there was no risk of fraud."

Aberdeenshire Council said it had reviewed security in the wake of the incident.

The matter was not reported to police but was dealt with internally between the two councils.

An Aberdeenshire Council spokesman said: "A parcel of cheques due to be printed on behalf of Aberdeen City Council was delivered to Woodhill House in September but went missing shortly after.

"When it became apparent the package couldn't be found, Aberdeen City Council was informed and we understand the cheques were immediately cancelled.

'No risk of fraud'

"We understand the cheques were not in a form that could be used, so there was no risk of fraud.

"Our internal procedures were reviewed to ensure that deliveries of cheques are always accepted by the appropriate member of staff."

Critics called for deeper investigation into how the blunder happened.

Mr Hunter said: "I think security will have to be improved.

"I think it's diabolical really that this has happened and someone will have to take responsibility for it.

"I think it's very worrying that something like this has happened and surely there should be a full inquiry into it."

Aberdeen City councillor Willie Young said he was worried about the implications of having blank cheques lost.

North East Labour MSP Richard Baker said: "It is concerning particularly when it's blank cheques as you want to be sure that these cheques cannot be used fraudulently.

"We have had reassurance from the council that they cannot be used fraudulently, but we need to be told exactly why they cannot be used."

Full story/Permalink

Reckless “lending” by central banks and its consequences

By Jas Jain
(Financial Sense) -- On Wednesday, December 12, 2007, leading Central Banks surprised the markets by promising to “rain money” on American and European banks. After years of Fed facilitating the pushing of debt on households by private financial institutions, including turning blind-eye to obvious abuses in the mortgage market, it suddenly is pushing debt on banks (ready money, or reserves, in exchange for questionable collateral) with the hope that they would continue lending to households. Would it work? Hell no. How do I know? I happened to listen to Alan Greenspan, during a question answer season in London few weeks ago, midnight California time, in which he said, “During early 1990s the money supply numbers stopped working [money supply was growing but banks were reluctant to lend]. We [Fed] put buckets of money out there [in the banks, similar to what the Fed is trying to do now] and it didn’t work. It was only after Wall Street came up with more [or newer] CDO products [“innovations” in securitization of debt] and took debt off the banks’ balance sheets that banks started to lend again and the economy began to respond.” Presently, the securitization of debt is in trouble due to its abuses. The process that took debt off banks’ balance sheets is clogged. Pouring rapid water in a clogged sink doesn’t work too well. It makes a mess.

Central banks’ announcement also ignited one of the biggest gains in crude oil price, which was working its way down due to prospects of the weakening US economy and was having hard time staying above $90/barrel, up almost $5 at one point and closed up $4.37 for the day. A trader in the futures trading pit commented that most of the increase in price was due to the surprise action taken by the central banks. The net result was that most of the announced money to be showered by the central banks was expected to be siphoned off to the petroleum exporting countries, many of which are what I call Al Qaeda nations.

Let us take this thought one step further. Let us hypothesize two scenarios for the US economy for the 12-month period, 2007Q4-2008Q3; one in which the US economy grows by 2% a year (an optimistic case) and one in which the US economy contracts by 1% a year (somewhat pessimistic case, but not the most pessimistic by any means). It is a reasonable assumption that the average crude oil price for the year would be $20-$40 per barrel lower in the second case despite all the talk of global decoupling. Assuming a $30 per barrel difference in the crude oil price between the two growth scenarios, a conservative estimate I might add (it could be $100 versus $40 per barrel under the two scenarios), Al Qaeda nations and their friends, or supporters like Venezuela, would take in $100B more from Americans under the 2% GDP growth scenario compared with 1% contraction scenario. It could even be as high as $200B.

Where would the money come from to produce 2% GDP growth if that were possible? Continuation of the debt-push on households, by private financial institutions, to the tune of $900-$1000B. The historical pattern of growth in the household debt versus growth in the GDP, since 1950, suggests that a household debt growth of $500-$600B would be necessary to keep the US economy out of recession during 2007Q4-2008Q3. If the growth in the household debt, mortgage debt being the overwhelming component, is limited to $400B then we are certain to have a 1%, or larger, contraction in the GDP. This clarity, in GDP growth versus household debt growth, is what is missing in the recession versus no recession debate.

It is undeniable that something big has happened in the US mortgage lending business since September 2007, mostly due to full recognition of the falling home prices, i.e., end of the denial, and its direct contribution to the sharp increase in foreclosures and losses in the US mortgage debt “securities” being experienced around the world (the collateral underlying the “securities” being lot less secure than imagined!). Assuming that the consumer credit (it excludes the mortgage debt) growth remains around $100B a year, if you were a betting man, or woman, would you bet on the mortgage debt to grow by $300B, or $500B, or $800B annual rate? Depending upon your answer you are indirectly predicting a deep recession, or mild recession, or 1.5-2% growth, respectively, for the 12-month period, 2007Q4-2008Q3. If the outstanding US mortgage debt stops to grow, led primarily by defaults in the existing mortgages, then we are talking about a depression. Pure and simple. That is how much addicted to debt the US economic growth has been turned into. Withdrawal of the addiction substance, or stimulus, means depression!

Now, do you see why the US Federal Reserve is panicking? Fed wants the private banks to keep lending money to the households (businesses are not much in the need of borrowing except for commercial real estate, which is suddenly turning down). Since most of the lending to the households is in the form of mortgage lending, the banks and other mortgage lenders are gun-shy.

I am sure that most people by now know how we arrived at the situation called “the mortgage mess.” Many also know that the mess is far deeper than what the “sub-prime” mantra suggests. Amazing part is that we got here despite terms like “reckless mortgage lending” being applied to it by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley some three years ago. This from Sprott Asset Management in July 2005: “…combined with rampant speculation and lax (even reckless) lending standards, has added a further leg to the housing bubble. However… there is only so much that housing prices can go up from here, and only so reckless that lenders can get, before the housing bubble collapses under its own weight.” (Emphasis added).

Some of us cranks and kooks have known about the mortgage insanity, or the evil practice of pushing debt, for some five years. I have put the term reckless in the title in quotes because there was nothing reckless about what the Fed did last week or it ever does, just as there was nothing reckless about the mortgage lenders’ pushing of debt and securitization by Wall Street (it was extremely profitable while it lasted). Long-term, there is no business as profitable as the debt business. The mortgage debt-push was a premeditated and fully thought out process.

There is nothing else that the Fed can do to keep the economy from slipping into recession, or depression, than to keep the debt-push going at an elevated pace. Unfortunately, Fed can’t directly push debt on households (no helicopter drops!). It needs banks as conduits and banks are in trouble. As Schumpeter noted, bankers’ mischief leads to catastrophes (his term for depressions). And he was talking about the private bankers. The role of the private bankers in causing the Great Depression is kept very quiet. Federal Reserve exists to get the blame! We have arrived at the juncture where the Fed becomes impotent. It has reached level of impotence beyond the economic equivalent of VIAGRA. That is what gross abuse of a function can lead to.

Finally, I turn to the unintended and very harmful long-term consequences of Fed’s policy of facilitating debt-push on the US households for the past five years – greatly strengthening Al Qaeda nations and creating a formidable economic and political rival in China. (Yes, China has been the biggest beneficiary of the debt-push on the US households that has gone on all thru the Greenspan-Bernanke years and accelerated during the past five years).

From a website on US energy consumption problem: “Q: Who controls the price of oil - OPEC or the Big Oil companies? A: NEITHER. It's you and me.” How about the Fed and the private bankers?! The price is determined at the margin and a large segment of American population will borrow and consume as long as, and as much as, there are bankers ready to lend to them. It is like putting candy in front of a kid. Without the debt-push for the past five years the crude oil today would be more like $20-$30 a barrel and Chinese economy would be 3/4th its size. Anyone who believes in decoupling theory would soon find out that China will suffer from the US households’ withdrawal symptoms.

For those of you who are worried about inflation, the total household debt growth below $300B annual rate will lead to outright deflation within months (inflation always lags). Household debt growth is inflationary in the present and deflationary in the future. Fed has been fighting deflation for the past five years by maintaining elevated rate of household debt growth! Controlled inflation, around 3%, has been Fed’s policy for the past 25 years, after Volcker tamed inflation. There is no such thing as “corrosive deflation,” Mr. Greenspan; there is only corrosive inflation. The policy of controlled corrosion in purchasing power is a bad one for the American workers and, especially, the poor. Sen. Bernie Sanders was right when he said to Greenspan, “that you see your major function in your position as the need to represent the wealthy and large corporations." Who helped Greenspan get the appointment?!

It Is the Debt, Stupid!
Jas Jain

PS: With the industrial base shrinking, America’s Military-Industrial Complex of the Eisenhower Era has been exported to China to make way for today’s Financial-Military Complex with military ready to serve bankers and financiers’ interests. Full story/Permalink

Brittania: Feed Us!

La Rouche PAC

(LPAC) -- Almost 1 million British households are struggling with their mortgage payments, and another 1.8 million 15% are having problems "at least occasionally," according to a survey released by the Bank of England in its latest Quarterly Bulletin. Things are going to be a lot worse, the tabloid Daily Mail reported today. These figures are already as high as 1995, at the tail end of the last house price crash in Britain, and this survey only took place in September, as the new crunch just started to hit. Annual mortgage payments jumped by $7.2 billion this year and almost 10% of households said they have to to borrow more to cover their mortgages, and another 10% are taking on second jobs and overtime, to deal with the rising mortgage costs.

Britain is actually bankrupt, with personal debt exceeding GDP this year, for the first time in its history. Personal debt is a whopping $2.690 billion, bigger than the estimated GDP of $2.666 billion, according to a new report prepared by accounting firm Grant Thornton. Economist Stephen Gifford said that the only reason Britain is not "technically bankrupt" is that most consumer debt is "secured" - but with the perilous state of the housing bubble, this is not actually true. Last week, the consumer group Citizens Advice warned that unpayable sub-prime mortgages will "turn into a nightmare of debt and homelessness for thousands more vulnerable people."

House prices are crashing - asking prices were down 3.2% in December from November, housing website Rightmove reported, way down from the 0.7% fall in November. Prices in London, center of the U.K. bubble and of world capital flows, fell by an average of $56,000 in December, the worst in Britain. The Telegraph reports that the flow of funds into commercial property is down for the first time in years, and this will get worse.

Full story/Permalink

We should give up futile attempts to combat climate change

(source)

Open Letter to the Secretary-General of the United Nations

Dec. 13, 2007

His Excellency Ban Ki-Moon

Secretary-General, United Nations

New York, N.Y.

Dear Mr. Secretary-General,

Re: UN climate conference taking the World in entirely the wrong direction

It is not possible to stop climate change, a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages. Geological, archaeological, oral and written histories all attest to the dramatic challenges posed to past societies from unanticipated changes in temperature, precipitation, winds and other climatic variables. We therefore need to equip nations to become resilient to the full range of these natural phenomena by promoting economic growth and wealth generation.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued increasingly alarming conclusions about the climatic influences of human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2), a non-polluting gas that is essential to plant photosynthesis. While we understand the evidence that has led them to view CO2 emissions as harmful, the IPCC's conclusions are quite inadequate as justification for implementing policies that will markedly diminish future prosperity. In particular, it is not established that it is possible to significantly alter global climate through cuts in human greenhouse gas emissions. On top of which, because attempts to cut emissions will slow development, the current UN approach of CO2 reduction is likely to increase human suffering from future climate change rather than to decrease it.

The IPCC Summaries for Policy Makers are the most widely read IPCC reports amongst politicians and non-scientists and are the basis for most climate change policy formulation. Yet these Summaries are prepared by a relatively small core writing team with the final drafts approved line-by-line

by ­government ­representatives. The great ­majority of IPCC contributors and ­reviewers, and the tens of thousands of other scientists who are qualified to comment on these matters, are not involved in the preparation of these documents. The summaries therefore cannot properly be represented as a consensus view among experts.

Contrary to the impression left by the IPCC Summary reports:

• Recent observations of phenomena such as glacial retreats, sea-level rise and the migration of temperature-sensitive species are not evidence for abnormal climate change, for none of these changes has been shown to lie outside the bounds of known natural variability.

• The average rate of warming of 0.1 to 0. 2 degrees Celsius per decade recorded by satellites during the late 20th century falls within known natural rates of warming and cooling over the last 10,000 years.

• Leading scientists, including some senior IPCC representatives, acknowledge that today's computer models cannot predict climate. Consistent with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998. That the current temperature plateau follows a late 20th-century period of warming is consistent with the continuation today of natural multi-decadal or millennial climate cycling.

In stark contrast to the often repeated assertion that the science of climate change is "settled," significant new peer-reviewed research has cast even more doubt on the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused global warming. But because IPCC working groups were generally instructed (see http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/wg1_timetable_2006-08-14.pdf) to consider work published only through May, 2005, these important findings are not included in their reports; i.e., the IPCC assessment reports are already materially outdated.

The UN climate conference in Bali has been planned to take the world along a path of severe CO2 restrictions, ignoring the lessons apparent from the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, the chaotic nature of the European CO2 trading market, and the ineffectiveness of other costly initiatives to curb greenhouse gas emissions. Balanced cost/benefit analyses provide no support for the introduction of global measures to cap and reduce energy consumption for the purpose of restricting CO2 emissions. Furthermore, it is irrational to apply the "precautionary principle" because many scientists recognize that both climatic coolings and warmings are realistic possibilities over the medium-term future.

The current UN focus on "fighting climate change," as illustrated in the Nov. 27 UN Development Programme's Human Development Report, is distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National and international planning for such changes is needed, with a focus on helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and pressing problems.

Yours faithfully,

[List of signatories]

Copy to: Heads of state of countries of the signatory persons.

Full story/Permalink

Press Release from Science & Environmental Policy Project

Contact: Dr S Fred Singer, President, SEPP singer@SEPP.org 703-920-2744

Climate warming is naturally caused and shows no human influence:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is not a pollutant.

Climate scientists at the University of Rochester, the University of Alabama, and the University of Virginia report that observed patterns of temperature changes (‘fingerprints’) over the last thirty years are not in accord with what greenhouse models predict and can better be explained by natural factors, such as solar variability. Therefore, climate change is ‘unstoppable’ and cannot be affected or modified by controlling the emission of greenhouse gases, such as CO2, as is proposed in current legislation.

These results are in conflict with the conclusions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and also with some recent research publications based on essentially the same data. However, they are supported by the results of the US-sponsored Climate Change Science Program (CCSP).

The report is published in the December 2007 issue of the International Journal of Climatology of the Royal Meteorological Society [DOI: 10.1002/joc.1651]. The authors are Prof. David H. Douglass (Univ. of Rochester), Prof. John R. Christy (Univ. of Alabama), Benjamin D. Pearson (graduate student), and Prof. S. Fred Singer (Univ. of Virginia).

The fundamental question is whether the observed warming is natural or anthropogenic (human-caused). Lead author David Douglass said: “The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming.”

Co-author John Christy said: “Satellite data and independent balloon data agree that atmospheric warming trends do not exceed those of the surface. Greenhouse models, on the other hand, demand that atmospheric trend values be 2-3 times greater. We have good reason, therefore, to believe that current climate models greatly overestimate the effects of greenhouse gases. Satellite observations suggest that GH models ignore negative feedbacks, produced by clouds and by water vapor, that diminish the warming effects of carbon dioxide.”

Co-author S. Fred Singer said: “The current warming trend is simply part of a natural cycle of climate warming and cooling that has been seen in ice cores, deep-sea sediments, stalagmites, etc., and published in hundreds of papers in peer-reviewed journals. The mechanism for producing such cyclical climate changes is still under discussion; but they are most likely caused by variations in the solar wind and associated magnetic fields that affect the flux of cosmic rays incident on the earth’s atmosphere. In turn, such cosmic rays are believed to influence cloudiness and thereby control the amount of sunlight reaching the earth’s surface—and thus the climate.” Our research demonstrates that the ongoing rise of atmospheric CO2 has only a minor influence on climate change. We must conclude, therefore, that attempts to control CO2 emissions are ineffective and pointless. – but very costly. Full story/Permalink

Fifteen Foods that Burn More Calories than They Contain

Fifteen Foods that Burn More Calories than They Contain

We need to scarf down plenty of calories in a day, but if you've got a nasty snack habit that's tipping the scales to heavy, weblog Bootstrapper's list of 15 foods that burn more calories than they contain might be the perfect addition to your grocery list. Called negative calorie foods, the following 15 treats actual burn more calories in their digestion than they offer, so you can fulfill your snack craving without the guilt of a bag of potato chips. From apples to zucchini, these foods make the perfect snacks. Hit the jump for the full list.

• Celery
• Oranges
• Strawberries
• Tangerines
• Grapefruit
• Carrots
• Apricots
• Lettuce
• Tomatoes
• Cucumbers
• Watermelon
• Cauliflower
• Apples
• Hot Chili Peppers
• Zucchini

Keep in mind that a diet limited to only these foods could lead to malnutrition (according to Wikipedia), so don't go getting all unhealthy on us. But when snack time hits, these healthy, negative calorie foods sound like winners. For more opitons, check Wikipedia's longer list of negative calorie foods, and for a glimpse at other low-calorie snacks, check out the 200-calorie gallery.

Negative Calorie Foods: 15 Foods That Actually Burn More Calories Than They Contain [Bootstrapper]

Full story/Permalink

DARPA: a world of total surveillance is not science fiction.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency:

DARPA’s mission is to maintain the technological superiority of the U.S. military and prevent technological surprise from harming our national security by sponsoring revolutionary, high-payoff research that bridges the gap between fundamental discoveries and their military use.

Full story/Permalink

The planned collapse of America

(source)

By Peter Chamberlin

(Online Journal) -- There is no shortage of speculation about "why" our leaders are still adamantly planning for the destruction of Iran, in the face of overwhelming popular opposition, even though everyone except the neocons and their allies believes that America would not survive our own actions. An irrational attack is planned and apparently the decision has been chiseled in stone. It may be for Israel. It may be for oil. Maybe it is for world domination?

We are launching a nuclear world war to save us from ourselves. "We have found the enemy and he is us." --Pogo. We risk blowing the world apart, to avoid watching America slowly choke on its own excesses.

The government has known for decades that America is on a countdown to self-destruction. Among the elite it is common knowledge that our "global economy" must one day collapse from its own dead weight. In 1974 an intensive research project was undertaken by the Stanford Research Institute and the Charles F. Kettering Foundation for the Dept. of Education. Their final report was released as the Changing Images of Man. It was compiled by the SRI Center for the Study of Social Policy, Director Willis Harmon. This is a far-reaching investigation into how the basic nature of man might be changed. The Aquarian Conspiracy describes the implementation of their work in the real world.

The most reassuring part of "Images" is that it confirms my own conclusions about our crisis, but it is also the most disturbing part, for it confirms my worst reservations about this time.

The object of the research was the development of a plausible vision of the future in which democratic methods survive, major problems are managed successfully if not resolved, and the unfolding of the human potential continues to expand. In other words, the postulation of a "desirable future" including feasible paths to its realization . . .

The government was looking forward to a very troubling future, trying to figure out the best path through it. The plan was to find ways to shape and mold mankind into a new cultural image, complete with new ideas and ideologies, even religious ones. The root of the problem was human nature, and solution was to reshape the competing forces of daily life, in order to forge a new image of a new human nature. The researchers were brutally honest in seeking all available knowledge pertaining to their research, and in assessing the current common image of man-on-earth.

The research revealed that there were a multitude of crises that were about to intersect in America's near future. Not the least of these converging catastrophes was a rapidly approaching breakdown of both American capitalism and democracy. The collapse was a natural result of globalism and monopoly capitalism. The basic greed that powers the system eroded the American political and economic structures, exposing the foundation of immorality and unfairness that amplifies the social unrest. The Stanford researchers clearly predicted that the American economy was destined to collapse from its own dead weight. The data also showed that that economic collapse was to be accompanied by disastrous social repercussions, such as rioting and upheaval, which would lead us into a "garrison state."

The thing about this research is that this work has confirmed that our economy based on parasitic capitalism, where the small elite sits atop the heap of men and gorges on their lifeblood, is destroying the social fabric of America. This system is based on a stacked deck, where the top elite always reap the profits that are made to rise to the top through the corporate profits-based system. The research confirmed that the growing inequities of such a system were ever increasing and with them, elevated social tensions. A system based on usury and putting everyone in the "poor house" is an economic order that is guaranteed to produce a democratic revolution, whenever the misery index of the armed populace exceeds the limits that they are willing to peacefully bear, without striking back at the source of their misery.

Changing Images of Man predicts an American economic collapse and a "garrison" (police) state," if the overwhelming inequities of our economic system are not corrected by powerful multinationals making more humane decisions. Alternatives to this doomsday scenario are discussed, all of which point to the need to devote all available resources towards transforming the image of man, changing man's nature, instead of altering the corrupted economic system which has brought America to this dire state. In this government study it was inappropriate to denounce the evil culprits behind all our troubles (who pull the strings on government itself), even though the task was to document and remedy the damage that they have done. Instead, they are cited as the hopeful "saviors," that we should look to for help and leadership. The hypocrisy of the hegemons! The authors admit that it is "utopian in 1974 to think of the multinational corporations as potentially among our most effective mechanisms for husbanding the earth's resources and optimizing their use for human benefit -- the current popular image of the corporation tends to be more that of the spoiler and the exploiter."

Instead of charging the people who are responsible for our situation (such as men like David Rockefeller), for manipulating our economy and our democracy to maximize their profits, the multi-national corporations and their owners were exalted as the potential saviors of mankind. Rockefeller and the elite have consistently taken steps to dominate the world by controlling people through "humanitarian" projects which, in the end, turn out to be profit mechanisms. The "green revolution" to spread corporate farming to the Third World has been the key to globalization's destabilizing of world labor markets, in order to create populations of "refugee workers," who are willing to go anywhere to find work for slave wages. This is the cause of the wave of illegal immigration into the US from Mexico. This is part of the proof that there are powerful individuals who are using their economic power to undermine nations in a long-term scheme to gain control of nations and multiply their profits.

Here David Rockefeller admits media collusion with his one world plans: "We are grateful to the Washington Post, the New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subjected to the light of publicity during those years. But now the world is more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supra-national sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."

Rockefeller writes on page 405 of his memoirs: "Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that is the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it." (Activists Go Face to Face With Evil As Rockefeller Confronted)

Everything that "Images" suggested to remedy shortcomings in the economic system was based on the assumption that men like this would acquire a new corporate benevolence, with CEOs gaining basic humanity. According to Rockefeller himself (who freely admits his efforts to replace America with a "one world" order), he has been working for the greater good of man, all along.

Their conclusions on American political shortcomings were that these would be tended to by the new improved humane politicians, sort of like Bush's "compassionate conservatives." Step 4 of their six-part strategy to "Bring About a Non-Catostrophic Transformation" -- "Encourage a politics of righteousness and a heightened sense of public responsibilities of the private sector . . . A politics of righteousness might have been laudable in any generation; it may be indispensable for safe passage through the times just ahead."

The report authors recognize the inevitability of the rising new image of man, describing it as a quasi-religious awakening within the collective mind of man, man's new human nature, relating it to the actual process of spiritual learning that has been going on within religions for thousands of years. They praise Freemasonry and the skills and disciplines inculcated within its members, speculating that their ways might be the key to shoring-up our free enterprise democratic society.

They developed a strategy to revitalize America's motivational images, symbols and institutions, outlining five separate approaches to the problem, describing the pluses and the pitfalls of each, according to their effects upon society. These approaches are defined as "restorative, simulative, manipulative, persuasive and facilitative." Restoration of crumbling icons works best in the early stages of societal transformation (revitalization cycle). The simulative strategy introduces new ideas, whenever the collapse of the old order becomes apparent. The manipulative strategy seeks to limit individual freedoms. Persuasive propaganda phase is to be coupled with proven mind control techniques, to keep down the social upheaval and shape the emerging image.

"No doubt existing consciousness-changing, behavior-shaping, subliminal persuasion, and other conditioning techniques could be used to accomplish some sort of transformation of sobering proportions (we ought to be able to be more effective than Nazi Germany). After previously citing Nazi reinvigoration of the Germanic icons and ideals."

The transforming revitalization process mirrors the psychiatric process of leading a patient through a psychotic break and the restructuring of his life, but on a national scale.

Once the transformation becomes apparent, social stability will become a problem, especially when society feels pushed by overextending the simulative stage. Actions taken to increase the polarization between "transformation enthusiasts and the conservatives" are called "constructive," except when it is desirable to take actions that "contribute to social cohesion." They were searching for the best path to bring about a controlled deconstruction of everything that "America" means and the reconstruction of a new improved vision of America. They are midwifes to the delivery of the "New World Order," as they go about the dirty business of guiding society through that predicted period of "friendly fascism."

The great anomaly is given as the great chasm between an efficiently functioning profit-driven capitalist society and the human needs and desires of that society which go unmet, so that "profits" can be taken. In fact, the "profit" really amounts to the bread that is taken from the poor. The inequities and the unfairness of the corporate system are causing the breakdown of American capitalism and American democracy. The American catastrophe is causing the breakdown of the world economy for the same reason, the basic inability of monopoly capitalism to meet the basic needs demanded by the world's people.

Bush's appointed task is to bully America through this turbulent period of upheaval, with as little disruption of corporate activity as possible. Government has taken the words of this study to heart, preparing a manipulative transformation, to divert or preempt the coming collapse of our nation with a massive war today. This is also one of the primary reasons for the coming world war, to serve as a prelude to American martial law. Instead of calling out the troops after the insurrection has begun, they plan to call out the troops first. If the American military is to forcefully control the homeland, including their own relatives, then the troops must first be convinced that the nation's survival depends upon their patriotic actions. This is why the world war against Iran has not started yet, because our National Guard must first be convinced that its duty is to put down the American rebellion which will surely accompany the bombing of Iran. The timing for their great takeover is crucial, if they want to move America past (through) the social unrest as quickly as possible.

Here are the "Elements of a Strategy for a Non-catastrophic Transition":

1. Promote awareness of the unavoidability of the transformation.
   
   
2. Foster construction of a guiding vision of a workable society built around the new image of man and new social paradigm.
   
   
3. Foster a period of experimentation and tolerance for diverse alternatives.
   
   
4. Encourage a politics of righteousness and a heightened sense of public responsibilities of the private sector . . . A politics of righteousness might have been laudable in any generation; it may be indispensable for safe passage through the times just ahead.
   
   
5. Promote systematic exploration of and foster education regarding man's inner life, his subjective experience.
   
   
6. Plan adequate social controls for the transition period while safeguarding against longer-term losses of freedom . . . Regulation and restraint of behavior will be necessary in order to hold the society together while it goes around a difficult corner.

There must be a new economics to deal with the "new scarcities." Arguing for corporate America to adopt a humanitarian aspect, the argument is made for an alternative "new socialism," where important sectors like energy might be nationalized for the good of the country, and greater pressure put upon corporations to mandate a sort of social awareness of employee needs, as much as shareholder profits.

"The appropriate question may be not so much how to bring about a transformation . . . but rather how to facilitate a non-catastrophic transformation." [page 195]

"Construct a guiding version of a workable society, built around a new positive image of humankind and corresponding vision of a suitable social paradigm. As the old order shows increasing signs of falling apart, some adequate vision of what may be simultaneously building is urgently needed for mobilization of constructive effort. The guiding vision has to include some way of providing for full and valued participation in the economic and social affairs of the community and society, especially for those who are physically and mentally able to contribute but find themselves in a state of unwilling idleness and deterioration of spirit."

Despite all the report's shortcomings and its hypocrisy, it does make some sound observations about what is needed for our immediate survival. We should take it as a guide to what our government knows about the coming mega-crisis and a template to help us see what changes we could make if there were truly a new economy, a new social contract, a new American state. For it is obvious to all those who take the time to look, that we are headed into period of national freefall, when American society plunges head first, into a dark abyss of uncertainty, as the old order passes away, and the New World Order rushes in to fill the void.

We are seeing the planned collapse of America, coming down the road we are on. What are we going to do to get our nation off that highway to hell?

Full story/Permalink